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科技互联网中级11:17ai strategy

How AI Could Empower Any Business

AI 如何赋能每一家企业

吴恩达把 AI 的普及类比为识字的普及:今天 AI 掌握在大科技公司这些「高级祭司」手中,可价值巨大的「长尾」需求——比萨店、T 恤厂、街边小店——却无人服务。他提出以「提供数据」取代「编写代码」的新型开发平台,让会计、店长、质检员都能亲手打造属于自己的 AI,从而让 AI 创造的财富惠及全社会。适合学习 AI 商业化与创业表达。

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台词(62 句)

00:04
When I think about the rise of AI, I'm reminded by the rise of literacy.

每当我想到 AI 的兴起,就会联想到识字率的普及。

00:10
A few hundred years ago, many people in society thought that maybe not everyone needed to be able to read and write.

几百年前,社会上很多人认为,也许并不是每个人都需要会读会写。

00:17
Back then, many people were tending fields or herding sheep, so maybe there was less need for written communication. And all that was needed was for the high priests and priestesses and monks to be able to read the Holy Book, and the rest of us could just go to the temple or church

那时候,很多人在种田或放羊,对书面交流的需求也许没那么大。人们觉得只要高级祭司、女祭司和僧侣能读懂圣典就够了,其余的人只要去神庙或教堂

00:31
or the holy building and sit and listen to the high priest and priestesses read to us. Fortunately, it was since figured out that we can build a much richer society if lots of people can read and write.

这些圣所,坐下来听祭司们念给我们听就行。幸运的是,后来人们意识到:如果许许多多的人都会读会写,我们就能建立一个丰富得多的社会。

00:42
Today, AI is in the hands of the high priests and priestesses. These are the highly skilled AI engineers, many of whom work in the big tech companies.

今天,AI 就掌握在这些「高级祭司」手中——他们是技艺高超的 AI 工程师,其中许多人就职于大科技公司。

00:51
And most people have access only to the AI that they build for them. I think that we can build a much richer society if we can enable everyone to help to write the future.

而大多数人能用到的,只是这些工程师替他们打造好的 AI。我认为,如果能让每个人都参与书写未来,我们就能建立一个丰富得多的社会。

01:03
But why is AI largely concentrated in the big tech companies? Because many of these AI projects have been expensive to build.

可为什么 AI 大多集中在大科技公司手里?因为很多 AI 项目造起来都很烧钱。

01:11
They may require dozens of highly skilled engineers, and they may cost millions or tens of millions of dollars to build an AI system.

它们可能需要几十位高水平工程师,打造一套 AI 系统的成本可能高达数百万甚至数千万美元。

01:19
And the large tech companies, particularly the ones with hundreds of millions or even billions of users, have been better than anyone else at making these investments pay off because, for them, a one-size-fits-all AI system, such as one that improves web search

而大科技公司,尤其是那些拥有数亿甚至数十亿用户的公司,比任何人都更擅长让这些投资获得回报。因为对它们来说,一套「一刀切」的 AI 系统——比如用来改进网页搜索,

01:35
or that recommends better products for online shopping, can be applied to [these] very large numbers of users to generate a massive amount of revenue.

或者为网购推荐更合适的商品——可以应用到极其庞大的用户群上,从而带来海量的收入。

01:44
But this recipe for AI does not work once you go outside the tech and internet sectors to other places where, for the most part, there are hardly any projects that apply to 100 million people or that generate comparable economics.

但这套 AI 的成功配方,一旦走出科技和互联网行业、来到其他领域,就行不通了。因为在大多数地方,几乎没有哪个项目能覆盖一亿人,或产生同等量级的经济效益。

02:00
Let me illustrate an example. Many weekends, I drive a few minutes from my house to a local pizza store to buy a slice of Hawaiian pizza from the gentleman that owns this pizza store.

我举个例子。很多周末,我都会从家开几分钟车,到附近一家比萨店,向店主买一块夏威夷比萨。

02:14
And his pizza is great, but he always has a lot of cold pizzas sitting around, and every weekend some different flavor of pizza is out of stock.

他的比萨很好吃,但店里总是摆着一堆卖不掉、放凉了的比萨,而每个周末又总有某种口味缺货。

02:23
But when I watch him operate his store, I get excited, because by selling pizza, he is generating data.

不过,当我看着他经营这家店时,我却很兴奋,因为在卖比萨的同时,他其实在源源不断地产生数据。

02:31
And this is data that he can take advantage of if he had access to AI. AI systems are good at spotting patterns when given access to the right data, and perhaps an AI system could spot if Mediterranean pizzas sell really well

只要他能用上 AI,这些数据就能为他所用。AI 系统只要拿到合适的数据,就很擅长发现规律。也许某套 AI 就能发现:地中海口味的比萨在周五晚上特别畅销,

02:47
on a Friday night, maybe it could suggest to him to make more of it on a Friday afternoon. Now you might say to me, "Hey, Andrew, this is a small pizza store.

于是它可以建议他在周五下午多做一些。这时你也许会对我说:「嘿,安德鲁,这只是一家小比萨店,

02:56
What's the big deal?" And I say, to the gentleman that owns this pizza store, something that could help him improve his revenues by a few thousand dollars a year, that will be a huge deal to him.

有什么大不了的?」我要说的是:对这位比萨店老板而言,任何能帮他每年多挣几千美元的东西,对他来说都是天大的事。

03:08
I know that there is a lot of hype about AI's need for massive data sets, and having more data does help.

我知道,外界大肆宣传说 AI 需要海量数据集,而数据越多确实越有帮助。

03:17
But contrary to the hype, AI can often work just fine even on modest amounts of data, such as the data generated by a single pizza store.

但与这种炒作相反,很多时候即便只有不多的数据,AI 照样能运转得很好——比如一家比萨店所产生的那点数据。

03:26
So the real problem is not that there isn’t enough data from the pizza store. The real problem is that the small pizza store could never serve enough customers to justify the cost of hiring an AI team.

所以真正的问题,不在于比萨店的数据不够多,而在于这家小店根本服务不了足够多的顾客,来分摊聘请一支 AI 团队的成本。

03:39
I know that in the United States there are about half a million independent restaurants. And collectively, these restaurants do serve tens of millions of customers.

我知道,美国大约有五十万家独立餐馆。加起来看,这些餐馆确实服务着数千万顾客。

03:48
But every restaurant is different with a different menu, different customers, different ways of recording sales that no one-size-fits-all AI would work for all of them.

但每家餐馆都各不相同:菜单不同、顾客不同、记录销售的方式也不同,没有哪套「一刀切」的 AI 能对它们通用。

03:58
What would it be like if we could enable small businesses and especially local businesses to use AI?

如果我们能让小企业、尤其是本地小店都用上 AI,那会是怎样一番景象?

04:05
Let's take a look at what it might look like at a company that makes and sells T-shirts. I would love if an accountant working for the T-shirt company can use AI for demand forecasting.

我们来看看,在一家生产和销售 T 恤的公司里,这会是什么样子。我很希望这家公司的会计能用 AI 来做需求预测。

04:16
Say, figure out what funny memes to prints on T-shirts that would drive sales, by looking at what's trending on social media.

比如,通过观察社交媒体上正在流行什么,来判断该把哪些有趣的梗印在 T 恤上,从而带动销量。

04:23
Or for product placement, why can’t a front-of-store manager take pictures of what the store looks like and show it to an AI and have an AI recommend where to place products to improve sales?

又比如商品陈列,为什么前台店长不能拍下店面的照片,交给 AI,让 AI 建议把商品摆在哪里更有利于提升销量呢?

04:34
Supply chain. Can an AI recommend to a buyer whether or not they should pay 20 dollars per yard for a piece of fabric now, or if they should keep looking because they might be able to find it cheaper elsewhere?

再说供应链。AI 能不能建议采购员:现在这块布料每码 20 美元,到底该不该买,还是再找找,因为别处也许能买到更便宜的?

04:46
Or quality control. A quality inspector should be able to use AI to automatically scan pictures of the fabric they use to make T-shirts to check if there are any tears or discolorations in the cloth.

还有质量控制。质检员应该能用 AI 自动扫描做 T 恤用的布料照片,检查布上有没有破洞或色差。

04:59
Today, large tech companies routinely use AI to solve problems like these and to great effect.

如今,大科技公司经常用 AI 来解决这类问题,而且成效显著。

05:06
But a typical T-shirt company or a typical auto mechanic or retailer or school or local farm will be using AI for exactly zero of these applications today.

但一家普通的 T 恤公司,或者一个普通的汽修工、零售商、学校、本地农场,如今在这些应用上用到的 AI,恰恰是零。

05:19
Every T-shirt maker is sufficiently different from every other T-shirt maker that there is no one-size-fits-all AI that will work for all of them.

每一家 T 恤厂商都和其他厂商有足够大的差别,以至于没有哪套「一刀切」的 AI 能对所有人都适用。

05:28
And in fact, once you go outside the internet and tech sectors in other industries, even large companies such as the pharmaceutical companies, the car makers, the hospitals, also struggle with this.

事实上,一旦走出互联网和科技行业、进入其他领域,就连制药公司、汽车厂商、医院这样的大企业,也同样为此发愁。

05:42
This is the long-tail problem of AI. If you were to take all current and potential AI projects and sort them in decreasing order of value and plot them, you get a graph that looks like this.

这就是 AI 的「长尾」难题。如果你把当前和潜在的所有 AI 项目,按价值从高到低排列并画成图,就会得到这样一条曲线。

05:57
Maybe the single most valuable AI system is something that decides what ads to show people on the internet. Maybe the second most valuable is a web search engine, maybe the third most valuable is an online shopping product recommendation system.

也许最有价值的那套 AI,是决定在网上给人们展示哪些广告的系统;第二有价值的,是网页搜索引擎;第三有价值的,是网购的商品推荐系统。

06:09
But when you go to the right of this curve, you then get projects like T-shirt product placement or T-shirt demand forecasting or pizzeria demand forecasting.

但当你顺着曲线往右走,就会遇到诸如 T 恤陈列、T 恤需求预测、比萨店需求预测这样的项目。

06:20
And each of these is a unique project that needs to be custom-built. Even T-shirt demand forecasting, if it depends on trending memes on social media, is a very different project than pizzeria demand forecasting, if that depends on the pizzeria sales data.

而其中每一个都是需要量身定制的独特项目。哪怕同是需求预测,靠社交媒体流行梗的 T 恤需求预测,和靠自家销售数据的比萨店需求预测,也是两个截然不同的项目。

06:37
So today there are millions of projects sitting on the tail of this distribution that no one is working on, but whose aggregate value is massive.

所以今天,在这条分布曲线的尾部,躺着数以百万计无人问津的项目,可它们加在一起的总价值却极其庞大。

06:46
So how can we enable small businesses and individuals to build AI systems that matter to them? For most of the last few decades, if you wanted to build an AI system, this is what you have to do.

那么,我们怎样才能让小企业和个人打造出对他们真正有用的 AI 系统呢?过去几十年里,如果你想搭建一套 AI 系统,你得这么做。

06:58
You have to write pages and pages of code. And while I would love for everyone to learn to code, and in fact, online education and also offline education are helping more people than ever learn to code, unfortunately, not everyone has the time to do this.

你得写下一页又一页的代码。虽然我很希望人人都能学会编程——事实上,线上和线下教育正让比以往更多的人学会写代码——但遗憾的是,并不是每个人都有时间去做这件事。

07:13
But there is an emerging new way to build AI systems that will let more people participate. Just as pen and paper, which are a vastly superior technology to stone tablet and chisel, were instrumental to widespread literacy, there are emerging new AI development platforms

但如今出现了一种搭建 AI 系统的新途径,能让更多人参与进来。就像纸笔——这种远胜于石板和凿子的技术——曾对识字的普及起到关键作用一样,如今也涌现出新的 AI 开发平台,

07:32
that shift the focus from asking you to write lots of code to asking you to focus on providing data.

它们把重点从「让你写大量代码」,转移到「让你专注于提供数据」。

07:39
And this turns out to be much easier for a lot of people to do. Today, there are multiple companies working on platforms like these.

事实证明,这对很多人来说要容易得多。如今,已经有多家公司在开发这类平台。

07:47
Let me illustrate a few of the concepts using one that my team has been building. Take the example of an inspector wanting AI to help detect defects in fabric.

我用我团队正在开发的一个平台,来说明其中几个概念。就以一位质检员想让 AI 帮忙检测布料瑕疵为例。

07:58
An inspector can take pictures of the fabric and upload it to a platform like this, and they can go in to show the AI what tears in the fabric look like by drawing rectangles.

质检员可以拍下布料的照片,上传到这样的平台,再通过画方框的方式,向 AI 演示布料上的破洞是什么样子。

08:09
And they can also go in to show the AI what discoloration on the fabric looks like by drawing rectangles.

他们同样可以通过画方框,向 AI 演示布料上的色差是什么样子。

08:16
So these pictures, together with the green and pink rectangles that the inspector's drawn, are data created by the inspector to explain to AI how to find tears and discoloration.

于是,这些照片连同质检员画出的绿色和粉色方框,就成了他亲手创造的数据,用来向 AI 说明如何找出破洞和色差。

08:28
After the AI examines this data, we may find that it has seen enough pictures of tears, but not yet enough pictures of discolorations.

在 AI 学习完这些数据后,我们可能发现,它看过的破洞照片已经够多了,但色差的照片还不够。

08:35
This is akin to if a junior inspector had learned to reliably spot tears, but still needs to further hone their judgment about discolorations.

这就好比一名新手质检员已经能可靠地认出破洞,但对色差的判断力还需要进一步打磨。

08:43
So the inspector can go back and take more pictures of discolorations to show to the AI, to help it deepen this understanding.

于是质检员可以回过头去,多拍一些色差的照片给 AI 看,帮助它加深这方面的理解。

08:50
By adjusting the data you give to the AI, you can help the AI get smarter. So an inspector using an accessible platform like this can, in a few hours to a few days, and with purchasing a suitable camera set up,

通过调整你喂给 AI 的数据,你就能让它变得更聪明。所以,一位质检员用上这样一个易上手的平台,只需几小时到几天,再配上一套合适的相机设备,

09:07
be able to build a custom AI system to detect defects, tears and discolorations in all the fabric being used to make T-shirts throughout the factory.

就能打造出一套定制的 AI 系统,检测全厂用于制作 T 恤的所有布料上的瑕疵、破洞和色差。

09:16
And once again, you may say, "Hey, Andrew, this is one factory. Why is this a big deal?"

你可能又会说:「嘿,安德鲁,这只是一家工厂,有什么大不了的?」

09:23
And I say to you, this is a big deal to that inspector whose life this makes easier and equally, this type of technology can empower a baker to use AI to check for the quality of the cakes they're making, or an organic farmer to check the quality of the vegetables,

我要对你说:对那位因此工作变轻松的质检员来说,这就是天大的事。同样地,这类技术还能赋能一位面包师用 AI 检查自己做的蛋糕质量,让一位有机农户检查蔬菜的品质,

09:39
or a furniture maker to check the quality of the wood they're using. Platforms like these will probably still need a few more years before they're easy enough to use for every pizzeria owner.

或者让一位家具师傅检查所用木材的质量。这类平台恐怕还要再过几年,才会易用到让每一位比萨店老板都能上手。

09:51
But many of these platforms are coming along, and some of them are getting to be quite useful to someone that is tech savvy today, with just a bit of training.

但许多这样的平台正在成熟,其中一些对如今懂点技术的人来说,只要稍加培训,就已经相当好用了。

10:00
But what this means is that, rather than relying on the high priests and priestesses to write AI systems for everyone else, we can start to empower every accountant, every store manager, every buyer and every quality inspector to build their own AI systems.

这意味着,我们不必再依赖那些「高级祭司」替所有人编写 AI 系统,而是可以开始赋能每一位会计、每一位店长、每一位采购员、每一位质检员,让他们打造属于自己的 AI 系统。

10:17
I hope that the pizzeria owner and many other small business owners like him will also take advantage of this technology because AI is creating tremendous wealth and will continue to create tremendous wealth.

我希望那位比萨店老板,以及许许多多像他一样的小企业主,也能用上这项技术。因为 AI 正在创造巨大的财富,而且还会继续创造巨大的财富。

10:30
And it's only by democratizing access to AI that we can ensure that this wealth is spread far and wide across society.

而唯有让人人都能用上 AI,我们才能确保这份财富广泛地惠及整个社会。

10:39
Hundreds of years ago. I think hardly anyone understood the impact that widespread literacy will have.

几百年前,我想几乎没有人料到识字的普及会带来多大的影响。

10:47
Today, I think hardly anyone understands the impact that democratizing access to AI will have.

而今天,我想也几乎没有人料到,让人人都能用上 AI 会带来多大的影响。

10:54
Building AI systems has been out of reach for most people, but that does not have to be the case. In the coming era for AI, we’ll empower everyone to build AI systems for themselves, and I think that will be incredibly exciting future.

长期以来,搭建 AI 系统对大多数人而言遥不可及,但事情不必如此。在即将到来的 AI 时代,我们将赋能每个人,让他们亲手为自己打造 AI 系统,我相信那会是一个无比激动人心的未来。

11:10
Thank you very much. (Applause)

非常感谢。(掌声)