营销管理高级08:09品牌营销

What Physics Taught Me About Marketing

物理学教给我的营销课

谷歌营销高管丹·科布利用四条物理学定律解读品牌营销:牛顿第二定律解释为什么大品牌难以重新定位;不确定性原理揭示消费者调研为何失真;科学方法说明一次丑闻足以摧毁多年品牌投入;熵增定律则告诉我们,与其对抗品牌传播的失控,不如拥抱它。金句频出,是学习品牌战略高级表达的上乘材料。

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台词(50 句)

00:16

So I work in marketing, which I love, but my first passion was physics, a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher, when I had a little less gray hair.

我从事营销工作,也热爱这一行,但我最初的热情属于物理——那是一位很棒的中学老师带给我的,那时我的白头发还没这么多。

00:27

So he taught me that physics is cool because it teaches us so much about the world around us.

他教会我:物理很酷,因为它能让我们更懂身边的世界。

00:33

And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you that physics can teach us something about marketing.

接下来的几分钟,我要试着说服各位:物理也能教给我们一些营销的道理。

00:39

So quick show of hands -- who studied some marketing in university? Who studied some physics in university?

快速举手示意一下——大学里学过营销的有多少人?学过物理的呢?

00:46

Pretty good. And at school? Okay, lots of you. So, hopefully this will bring back some happy, or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.

不错。那中学阶段呢?好,很多人。希望接下来的内容能唤起一些美好的回忆——也可能是些略微令人不安的回忆。

00:54

So, physics and marketing. We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law: "The force equals mass times acceleration."

那么,物理与营销。我们从最简单的说起——牛顿定律:「力等于质量乘以加速度。」

01:03

This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines should have studied a bit more carefully before they ran this campaign.

土耳其航空当年要是把这条定律研究得再透一点,或许就不会推出这场广告活动了。

01:13

But if we rearrange this formula quickly, we can get to acceleration equals force over mass, which means that for a larger particle -- a larger mass -- it requires more force to change its direction.

但只要快速变换一下公式,就能得到:加速度等于力除以质量。也就是说,粒子越大——质量越大——改变它的方向所需的力就越大。

01:28

It's the same with brands: the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has, the more force is needed to change its positioning.

品牌也是如此:品牌的体量越大、包袱越重,改变它的定位就需要越大的力量。

01:36

And that's one of the reasons why Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture rather than try to persuade the world that Andersen's could stand for something other than accountancy.

这也是安达信当年选择另起炉灶推出「埃森哲」的原因之一——而不是费力去说服世人:安达信还能代表会计以外的业务。

01:47

It explains why Hoover found it very difficult to persuade the world that it was more than vacuum cleaners, and why companies like Unilever and P&G keep brands separate, like Ariel and Pringles and Dove

它也解释了为什么胡佛公司很难让世人相信自己不只是做吸尘器的,以及为什么联合利华、宝洁这样的公司会让碧浪、品客、多芬等品牌各自独立,

02:00

rather than having one giant parent brand. So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object the more force is needed to change its direction.

而不是打造一个巨型母品牌。物理学告诉我们:物体质量越大,改变其方向所需的力就越大。

02:11

The marketing is, the bigger a brand, the more difficult it is to reposition it. So think about a portfolio of brands or maybe new brands for new ventures.

营销学的对应结论是:品牌越大,重新定位就越难。所以,不妨考虑构建品牌组合,或者为新业务启用新品牌。

02:21

Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle? Getting a little more technical now.

接下来,谁还记得海森堡的不确定性原理?现在要稍微硬核一点了。

02:26

So this says that it's impossible, by definition, to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position -- and the momentum of a particle, because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.

该原理说,从定义上讲,你不可能同时精确测量一个粒子的状态——即位置——和动量,因为测量这个动作本身就会改变它。

02:37

So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle and you shine a light on it, then the photon of light has momentum, which knocks the particle, so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.

解释一下:如果你朝一个基本粒子打一束光,光子带有动量,会把粒子撞开,于是你就无从知道观测之前它到底在哪里。

02:50

By measuring it, the act of measurement changes it. The act of observation changes it.

测量它,测量这个动作就改变了它;观察这个动作改变了它。

02:56

It's the same in marketing. So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.

营销也一样:观察消费者这个行为本身,就会改变他们的行为。

03:01

Think about the group of moms who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group, and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.

想想焦点小组里那群妈妈,她们大谈自己的乖孩子,几乎没有人承认会买很多垃圾食品。

03:09

And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year. Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets, who stuff their trolleys full of fresh green vegetables and fruit, but don't shop like that any other day.

可麦当劳每年却能卖出数亿个汉堡。再想想那些接受陪同购物调研的人:他们在超市里把购物车塞满新鲜果蔬,平时却根本不这么买。

03:23

And if you think about the number of people who claim in surveys to regularly look for porn on the Web, it's very few.

再看看问卷调查里承认自己经常在网上浏览成人内容的人数——少得可怜。

03:31

Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category. So luckily, the science -- no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.

但在谷歌,我们知道那是搜索量第一的类目。幸运的是,科学——不,抱歉——营销正在变得容易起来。

03:40

Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking, more digital media consumption, you can measure more what consumers actually do, rather than what they say they do.

幸运的是,有了更完善的销售终端追踪和更普及的数字媒体消费,你可以更多地去测量消费者实际做了什么,而不是他们嘴上说什么。

03:50

So the physics is you can never accurately and exactly measure a particle, because the observation changes it.

物理学告诉我们:你永远无法精确无误地测量一个粒子,因为观测会改变它。

03:58

The marketing is -- the message for marketing is -- that try to measure what consumers actually do, rather than what they say they'll do or anticipate they'll do.

营销学的启示是:要努力去衡量消费者实际的行为,而不是他们声称会做,或预计自己会做的事。

04:09

So next, the scientific method -- an axiom of physics, of all science -- says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation, you can only disprove it.

接下来是科学方法——物理学乃至一切科学的公理:你无法通过观察证实一个假说,只能证伪它。

04:18

What this means is you can gather more and more data around a hypothesis or a positioning, and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.

这意味着,你可以围绕一个假说或一个品牌定位收集越来越多的数据,这些数据会强化它,却永远无法给出最终证明。

04:26

And only one contrary data point can blow your theory out of the water.

而只需一个相反的数据点,就能把你的整套理论彻底击沉。

04:31

So if we take an example -- Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory that the planets would rotate around the Earth.

举个例子:托勒密手握几十个数据点,支持行星绕地球运转的理论。

04:39

It only took one robust observation from Copernicus to blow that idea out of the water.

而哥白尼只用一次扎实的观测,就把这个理论彻底推翻。

04:45

And there are parallels for marketing -- you can invest for a long time in a brand, but a single contrary observation of that positioning will destroy consumers' belief.

营销界也有对应的现象:你可以长年累月地投资一个品牌,但只要出现一次与定位相悖的事实,消费者的信任就会崩塌。

04:55

Take BP -- they spent millions of pounds over many years building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand, but then one little accident.

以 BP 为例——他们多年间投入数百万英镑,打造环保品牌的信誉资本,结果一场「小小的」事故,前功尽弃。

05:05

Think about Toyota. It was, for a long time, revered as the most reliable of cars, and then they had the big recall incident.

再想想丰田。长期以来,它被奉为最可靠的汽车品牌,然后爆发了大规模召回事件。

05:15

And Tiger Woods, for a long time, the perfect brand ambassador. Well, you know the story.

还有泰格·伍兹,曾经完美的品牌代言人。后面的故事,大家都知道了。

05:25

So the physics is that you cannot prove a hypothesis, but it's easy to disprove it -- any hypothesis is shaky.

物理学告诉我们:假说无法被证实,却很容易被证伪——任何假说都摇摇欲坠。

05:34

And the marketing is that no matter how much you've invested in your brand, one bad week can undermine decades of good work.

营销学的启示是:无论你在品牌上投入了多少,糟糕的一周就足以毁掉几十年的心血。

05:42

So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups that can undermine your brand.

所以要格外小心,尽力避免那些可能拖垮品牌的重大失误。

05:47

And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy -- the second law of thermodynamics.

最后,我们来到略显晦涩的「熵」的世界——热力学第二定律。

05:52

This says that entropy, which is a measure of the disorder of a system, will always increase.

它说,熵——衡量一个系统无序程度的量——总是会增加。

05:58

The same is true of marketing. If we go back 20 years, the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager could pretty much define a brand.

营销同样如此。倒回 20 年前,一条基本由一位营销经理掌控的信息,几乎就能定义一个品牌。

06:08

But where we are today, things have changed. You can get a strong brand image or a message and put it out there like the Conservative Party did earlier this year with their election poster.

但今时不同往日。你可以打造一个强有力的品牌形象或信息并投放出去,就像今年早些时候保守党的竞选海报那样。

06:20

But then you lose control of it. With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools that are available now to every consumer, it's impossible to control where it goes.

但随后,你就失去了对它的控制。如今每个消费者手里都有数字化的内容创作与传播工具,信息会流向哪里,根本无法控制。

06:32

Your brand starts being dispersed, it gets more chaotic. It's out of your control.

你的品牌开始四散传播,变得越来越混乱,不再受你掌控。

06:46

I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job. But while this may be unsettling for marketers, it's actually a good thing.

我还真听过他演讲——讲得挺好。不过,尽管这种失控让营销人感到不安,它其实是件好事。

06:53

This distribution of brand energy gets your brand closer to the people, more in with the people.

品牌能量的这种扩散,会让品牌离大众更近,更融入人群。

06:59

It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force, which is ultimately good for your brand.

它让这种能量的扩散成为一股「民主化」的力量,最终对你的品牌是有利的。

07:05

So, the lesson from physics is that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.

所以,物理学的教训是:熵总会增加,这是基本定律。

07:10

The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed. You can't fight it, so embrace it and find a way to work with it.

给营销的启示是:你的品牌会更加分散。你无法与之对抗,那就拥抱它,想办法与之共处。

07:18

So to close, my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me that physics is cool, and hopefully, I've convinced you that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.

最后收个尾:我的老师伍特先生告诉我,物理很酷。希望我也让各位相信:物理能教给我们所有人——哪怕在营销的世界里——一些特别的东西。

07:29

Thank you.

谢谢大家。